MLB Best Bets: Friday, 4/14
A lot of games, doesn't HAVE to mean a lot of bets.
We roll into Friday and a full 15-slate of games without a ton of momentum. Wednesday was the biggest card I put out this year and it finished just under breaking even. Then yesterday, I took a day off but couldn’t resist betting on a few of my favorite aces - Jeffrey Springs and Nick Lodolo. Springs hurt himself in the fourth inning after being dominant through three innings and only one strikeout away from hitting his prop.
He was actually ONE STRIKE away as he had Justin Turner in a 1-2 count when he noticed his arm wasn’t right. I just hope he isn’t seriously hurt because many of you know he was our cash cow last season and he was in the middle of a huge breakout this year already.
Lodolo pitched well but only struck out 6 Phillies when we needed 8. It was his second start against them in a row and I am starting to think that might be a trend that I have to avoid.
But we move on and as I teased in the title of this post - despite it being a full slate of games I am going to reduce the number of overall plays. That mainly has to do with there being fewer spots overall that I like, but also because I’d rather hone in on 10-12 picks than spread things out over 20+.
I can’t embed tweets in here anymore because Twitter and Substack hate each other, but I ran across this quote from my friend John Laghezza who is an awesome MLB sports bettor and handicapper.
https://twitter.com/JohnLaghezza/status/1646684502192783360?s=20
The main idea here is that we try to avoid the big losses and so far with the exception of one -6 unit day, I think we’ve been able to do that for the most part. While it would be awesome to win 5-10 units a day, that’s simply not sustainable or worth some of the risks that are associated with the types of bets you’d have to make to get there.
Slow and steady wins the race. If we can finish up at the end of the day, that’s awesome. And if we lose a unit or two here and there, we make up for it with a good night the next day.
A quick recap then we dive into today’s picks!
Wednesday 4/12 Recap
3-star: 7-3, 2-star 3-7, 1-star 1-2, ML Parlay 1-0, HR 0-1
Total: 12-13, -0.42 units
Note: I added Taj Bradley as a 2-star pick midway through the day and crushed, we will be watching for him in his next start assuming he takes Springs's spot in the rotation.
A tough day for the 2-star picks, but we are still above .500 on the season on 3 and 2-star picks and hanging out around +20 units on the year.
Reminder that all 1-star picks have been .5 units since earlier this week if you are wondering how the math adds up.
Season-to-date through 4/12: 99-83-1, +21.02 Units
3 Star: 40-23, 2 Star: 40-36, 1 Star: 15-17-1, ML Parlay: 9-5, HR: 7-15
Straight Bets
3-Stars:
