MLB Best Bets: Friday, 5/5
Back in the Saddle Again
Here it is 11:00 and I am just wrapping things up. I spent quite a bit of time revamping things today in an effort to really get back on track after it’s been a rocky couple of weeks. So rather than just skim the article for the picks, I implore you to read it thoroughly as I took the time to explain my methodology and how I got onto today’s picks, and what I am trying to do going forward to vette each and every pick as much as possible.
You know the drill, a quick recap (from Wednesday since we didn’t have a newsletter yesterday), and then onto all the good stuff!
Wednesday Recap
3 Star: 3-4, 2 Star: 6-2, 1 Star: 1-2, ML Parlay: 0-1, HR: 0-1
Overall: 10-10, -0.65 units
Somehow we ended up almost breaking even despite some dumb stuff happening with K props and the Cubs laying an egg. We are still positive on the season, but the profits have dwindled considerably and I’m feeling the pressure a bit.
The overall record is under .500, but consider that 30 of those losses are from HR props that are only .25 units and you’ll understand why we are still above water.
What’s funny is that I was actually going to write an article earlier this season about why HR props are bad bets as a whole, but then I had a crazy hot streak of hitting them in the first few weeks so I backed off. Regression has hit hard, though, and it’s been a few weeks since I hit one. So I might just fade HR props for a bit.
Through May 3: 223-226-1, +2.31 units
3 Star: 85-69, 2 Star: 87-79, 1 Star: 27-33-1, ML Parlay: 16-15, HR: 8-30
Straight Bets
There is no total out yet for the Angels-Rangers game, but the projections like it for 13 runs! That’s one of the highest non-Coors projections I’ve seen all season, so I am in for the over tonight, even if it comes in at like a 10-run total.
3-Stars: NONE
2-Stars:
Atlanta -1.5 (-105)
Dodgers ML (-120)
1-Star: NONE
Money Line Parlays:
TBR + STL = (+124 DK)
Pitcher Props
Strikeout Projections
Before I post the projections, let me just say I added something to the chart that I think can help us make these tough calls.
It’s the opposing team’s wRC+ (weighted runs created +) which is a pretty solid overall metric that shows us how well an offense is hitting against a specific handedness of pitcher. If that number is HIGH, it’s good for the offense and bad for the pitcher so it will show up as RED on the chart as in AVOID or “potential danger.”
So even if a pitcher has a projection over their prop (like Darvish for example tonight) we might still avoid them if they have a tough matchup for run prevention. If they get hit hard and knocked out early, they’re never hitting their number.
I also wanted to mention Swinging Strike Rate. My buddy Jon Anderson posted this yesterday and it’s an incredibly helpful guide to understanding if a pitcher’s K rate is sustainable or not. If a pitcher has a much higher K rate but a low SwStr% then they’re catching guys looking a lot and might not have the strong K “stuff” that we are looking for and trusting with our hard-earned dollars.
