MLB Best Bets: Mon, 4/24
Monday Morning Madness
Good morning everyone. I hope you had a good weekend. I wasn’t able to get a newsletter out yesterday, though I had planned to as my Sunday took an unexpected turn right out of the gate.
My wife didn’t sleep well and said that her heart was racing and that it had been doing that at times now for several weeks. So I took her to ER and we got her checked out. The good news is that she’s going to be fine, she has a minor condition that is very treatable and already got some medication. But it was scary for her - and both of us. And not how we wanted to spend half of our Sunday.
I was able to put a few K prop bets while we waiting for lab results and did pretty decent on the day with Gausman, Detmers, Logan Allen, Luzardo, and Rodgriguez all hitting theirs and only Bello and Greene missing. Those won’t be on the record anywhere, but I hope you saw a few of my tweets and tailed a bet or two anyway.
It’s back to the drawing board today for an 11-game Monday. We do have some decent K props today and a solid card despite fewer games. I am including my strikeout projections today for the first time, though with some caveats (more on that in a little). Let’s do the recap from Saturday (painful) and then get right into today’s bets.
Saturday 4/22 Recap
3-star: 3-4, 2-star 1-5, 1-star 0-0, ML Parlay 0-2, HR 0-2
Total: 4-11, - 7.5 units
Just an ugly day Saturday and I hate days like this, though “Momma told me” there would be some. Feels like we are the yo-yo here lately, trading some good days with bad days and a few “break-even” days mixed in. I’m trying to keep perspective and remind myself that there will be peaks and valleys but the general trend for the season is still upward.
Season-to-date through 4/22: 166-163-1, +10.78 Units
3 Star: 63-46, 2 Star: 60-60, 1 Star: 22-24-1, ML Parlay: 13-10, HR: 8-25
Straight Bets
3-Stars:
ATL -1.5 (-135)
2-Stars:
Boston ML (-115)
1-Star:
KC-ARI UNDER 10 runs (-115)
Money Line Parlay:
LA Angels + Tampa Bay = (+147 DK)
Pitcher Props
Here are my full K projections. Remember that we are still waiting for both pitchers’ and hitters’ numbers to stabilize a bit and that I don’t always recommend every pitcher one way or the other. I factor in a pitcher’s swinging strike rate as well as their walk rate and compare those to the opposing team’s plate discipline as well.
