Fewer bets and more concentration on game outcomes worked yesterday as we gained 1.5 units back on the season. I am going with a similar approach today, but also incorporating some hitter props, too.
I have a pretty lengthy explanation of what I think is going on with pitching props and I included my model for the first time this season, for your perusal.
Let’s get to it - this one gets a little lengthy.
Results + 2024 BB Tracker
I wanted to start the season with 100% transparency and maintain it throughout the season, I think it’s important for everyone to see that every bet is being tracked.
Check the link to see the results.
Season Total: -24.47 UNITS
Game Sides + Totals
The Pirates don’t seem to get any respect today. Despite being on the road, they have the better offense and pitcher going tonight. I’m in at plus money.
ML Parlays:
TB + LAD (+104 DK)
Strikeout/Pitcher Props
K Model + Some Important Info
If you remember from last year, my K model for pitchers looks something like this. Now, again, I am off to a rocky start this season and it’s causing me to be more careful with bets and to reevaluate my process. Even the largest sample sizes we have from pitchers today are no bigger than around 18-20 innings and some pitchers are even making their first starts. There’s NO reason to rush the K props, I am trying to practice some patience until I can backtest the results of the model a bit AND I get my K-prop dashboard launched over at Best Odds.
You can see that not too much stands out today, it’s a fairly weak pitching slate. I don’t really trust Sonny Gray in only his second start, especially with a single-digit SwStr%. I like to include swinging strike rate, walk rates, and opposing wRC+ so you can see that we are vetting every pick through multiple stats and channels.
Even our best K projection (Gil vs. TOR) has some red flags as Gil has a massive walk rate and hasn’t finished five innings yet. I’ll be fading pitcher props again today and biding my time.
But we do have hitter props returning today!
Hitter Props
Let me explain the rationale here a bit. I am going to dip my toes back into the hitter prop pick mix tonight with exclusively H+R+RBI props. Remember, to hit we need 2 total hits, runs, or RBI while for total bases we need an extra-base hit or two hits.
Total bases usually carry better odds, but we increase the likelihood of cashing these props if our hitter manages only one single - as long as they drive in a run or score a run, too. We bring sacrifice flies into play and also walks to an extent as our hitters can draw a walk and score a run in addition to getting a hit. I know a few guys in the industry that swear by this prop over total bases, so I am going to lean into it a bit.
To pick these hitters I go through a multiple-step process of using RotoBaller matchup ratings, pitch profiling, splits matchups, and recency production (hot or cold). I feel really good about these tonight and two of the four (Carter and Suwinski) come at pretty good odds.
Enjoy some baseball tonight! And thanks for stopping through!
-Thunder Dan