MLB OPENING DAY BETS
We finally made it! K Props, NRFI, and more!
Hey everyone…I think we made it. Winter is…over? In my 43 years on the planet, nothing really embodies the vibe of “Hope Springs Eternal” like MLB Opening Day.
The grass is getting green, and there’s a brisk 50-degree breeze blowing through the air. It’s too hot for a coat, but when the wind blows, you’re cold in just a t-shirt, too.
Every team is tied for first place, and our betting record is 0-0, too. If you love baseball, then it’s a beautiful time of year. And while I could say “enjoy opening day just for the love of the game,” I recognize that many of us still want a little sweat on some props or outcomes.
I’ll be going light the first week of the season, or at least attempting to do so. We really don’t know who is going to be good yet, though we certainly have some clues and our own biases.
If you’re reading this and you read my stuff pretty regularly, then consider supporting my efforts by signing up for a premium subscription. Today’s picks will be free to everyone, but I will be paywalling picks after that, especially my K props, which are my wheelhouse in MLB props.
I actually have a few NBA props here first, since it’s a really nice Wednesday night slate. Then we can get to the baseball stuff!
MLB BETS and PROPS
I will be using a lot of screenshots today, because it does make putting this all together easier, so I can get it out as quickly as possible.
NRFI BET
NYM-PIT NRFI (-125 DK)
Paul Skenes vs. Freddy Peralta actually pops as the best value in my model, and should be priced around -160 or higher, so I am going to slam this one on Opening Day.
A lot of the other ace vs. ace matchups are priced too rich for my blood and simply don’t make sense to risk it.
Don’t worry, we will have more NRFI action as the season gets going, and probably some parlays at one point, too.
ML Parlay
Those who have been around a while know that I try to hit a 2-leg ML parlay every day. We always want these to be +100 or better, and they have to be games where my model agrees that the favorite is priced appropriately.
No ML or run line bets for Thursday, we will likely be slow to get those integrated and wait for more 2026 data.
K PROPS
I did write up these props for a public article on RotoBaller, but I will only be doing that around once a week, so every other day, my K props will be exclusively available for premium peeps.
Here are the straight bets.
And here are some prop parlay tiers that I did on DK.
And with that…we are OFF! Can’t wait for those games tomorrow! Let’s have a great season, and thanks so much, everyone, for following along with me on this journey.
Best,
Thunder Dan