NBA Daily Dose: October 25th
Small slate, big bets!
I won’t try to hide it, I swung and missed pretty badly on yesterday’s games and had my worst day of the NBA season by far (between DFS, props, and bets). I was frustrated when my cash lineup just bubbled outside the money despite having most of the right plays and reminded that you are only one bad play away from missing the cash line.
My bets were bad, too, with Boston totally falling apart after having a huge lead early in the first half. I was too invested in Minnesota props, though KAT did hit his assists number and then Bam trolled me by getting his 10th rebound in the final 5 seconds and going over his number (we had the under).
So I have to hit the reset button this morning and re-evaluate the process. Today, with only four games I will have fewer recommendations but I am going to plant my flag on a few spots and up the number of units I have in play instead.
We are just now finishing up a week of games, so I have to remind myself that it’s not a sprint, it’s a marathon, and that more data is only going to likely lead to a more informed process in the end.
NBA Game Value Model
There are a lot of major players out tonight (SGA, Giddey, PG13, Zion, Ingram) and with three teams missing important pieces, it’s going to create value for DFS and some uncertainty in the betting markets.
DraftKings DFS CORE
Luka Doncic- $11,100
Luka stands alone as the top stud on the slate, especially since Steph and CP3/Booker face off against each other in a tough matchup. The Pelicans are without three starters tonight and I love Dallas here both in DFS and in bets. Luka has been unstoppable and it’s not likely that the Pellies stop him without three of their better players.
Trey Murphy III - $4800
Murphy has long been a favorite of mine in DFS and we rode him in the preseason to some nice wins. He and Nance should be the biggest beneficiaries for the Pelicans and I would rather play New Orleans value than pay up for CJ or Jo-Val in case Dallas just whips them.
Larry Nance Jr. - $5000
Nance has played well off the bench so far going 6-6-3 with 1.0 blocks per game. He had 27.9 DK points against Utah and played a season-high 29 minutes since Ingram went down early, and with 30 minutes tonight, he should crush this price tag.
Sample Lineup (current cash build)
