Thunder Dan's Best Bets

Thunder Dan's Best Bets

NFL Week 4 Best Bets

Time to make some bank...

Dan Palyo's avatar
Dan Palyo
Sep 29, 2023
∙ Paid

Welcome back to NFL Week 4! We have another awesome set of games this weekend with the 9:30 AM game in London between the Jags and Falcons and just one Monday Night game instead of two.

This is a really great card this week and I am loading up on both full game bets and props. Week 4 is usually a great week to start really leaning on the new 2023 data as three games worth of info is a lot more reliable than just one or two and we start to see patterns emerge as far as teams that we want to target with certain positions, etc.

I am going to post a few quick MLB bets, but it’s the final three days of the regular season so I am not investing too heavily in that today or this weekend as we could get all kinds of weird lineups and players resting, pitchers being limited, etc…

My MLB bets are free today but I have to keep my NFL card behind the paywall. Do consider signing up for the premium content we have one-week trials and I have a link to a discount code, too. I think I grind this game as hard as anyone and I’m not asking for much as I literally spent 6 dollars on a pumpkin spice latte for my wife this morning and that’s how much it costs for an entire month of content!


MLB Bets for 9/22

Pitcher Props

Carlos Rodon OVER 5.5k (-105 FanDuel)

Nick Pivetta OVER 5.5k (-155 DraftKings)

If we get a really wonky lineup from Baltimore, then I would consider running that Pivetta ladder up to like 8-9.

Hitter Props

Aaron Judge HR (+170)

Get 10% off for 1 year


NFL Spreads and Totals

User's avatar

Continue reading this post for free, courtesy of Dan Palyo.

Or purchase a paid subscription.
© 2026 Dan Palyo · Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start your SubstackGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture